PARAMOUNT+ · SAME OWNER AS HBO
Lioness
2.50×as likely to watch as comparable homes
FOR MEDIA ANALYSTS & INVESTMENT TEAMS
See the business
behind the ticker.
Find what the headline misses. Compare streaming portfolios, examine the next content catalyst, and uncover the audiences shared across services. Our Q3 research brings the evidence down to the shows.
NETFLIX / Q3 2026OCT 9U.S. original-series demand share · YoYWhat’s beneath the headline?Q3 research report · fixed findings
01 / THE BUSINESS BENEATH THE HEADLINE
Is the lineup stronger
than the quarter looks?
A hit can carry a whole service. A missing season can obscure progress elsewhere. We separate the largest shows from the rest of the slate so analysts can locate the change.
Netflix / THE WHOLE SLATE & THE BENCHQ3 2026 vs Q3 2025Is a weaker quarter hiding a stronger lineup?
Separate missing tentpoles from weakness across the rest of the catalog. Netflix’s overall share fell, but the decline was concentrated in three shows.
Year-over-year change in mean daily U.S. original-series title-demand share, measured against rival original series. Growth percentages, not percentage points or subscriber share.
WHAT THIS COMPARISON DOES
Wednesday, Squid Game and The Sandman removed from both years.
HBO Max / THE WHOLE SLATE & THE BENCHQ3 2026 vs Q3 2025Is flagship success becoming broader growth?
Locate the dependence on a few releases. HBO’s original-series gains were led by House of the Dragon and Lanterns, while only 26 of 65 material titles gained share.
Year-over-year change in mean daily U.S. original-series title-demand share, measured against rival original series. Growth percentages, not percentage points or subscriber share.
WHAT THIS COMPARISON DOES
The union of both years’ top two titles removed from both years.
02 / THE NEXT CONTENT CATALYST
What replaces
the departing demand?
Tie a thesis to a specific quarter and the shows expected to deliver it. Our Netflix scenario names the returners, measures the remaining gap, and states what could change the conclusion.
NETFLIX / Q4 RETURNING-SERIES SCENARIOModel · October 9DEPARTING DEMAND = 100%
How much do the returning shows replace?
Seven returning franchises cover about two-thirds of the departing demand in the report’s panel-based scenario.
62%
of departing demand
covered by returners
CoveredGap
The remaining gap could be filled by a breakout new or catalog title. This model does not count new series, films or live events.
Which shows and assumptions are behind this?
The Diplomat, Cyberpunk, Nobody Wants This, Lupin, Black Doves, The Hunting Wives and Emily in Paris. Each is assumed to keep 85% of its prior audience. Emily in Paris has eight days in the quarter. The report’s independent check using Netflix’s public hours gives 80–82% coverage on a different measurement basis. It is not the panel result.
This is a new October scenario with a different roster and method from July’s 48% example. Score it after December 31 against the report’s frozen roster and formula.
03 / COMPETITIVE AUDIENCE RELATIONSHIPS
See where
the audiences meet.
Understand which catalogs reach the same viewers. The HBO and Paramount+ research identifies specific discovery paths to test, with implications for competitive positioning and integration.
SHARED AUDIENCES / LANTERNSU.S. panel · Aug 31–Sep 27
START WITH THE VIEWER
Lanterns
What else do these households watch?
APPLE TV · COMPETING CATALOG
Dark Matter
2.96×as likely to watch as comparable homes
WHY AN ANALYST CARES
Lioness suggests a discovery path within the combined owner. Dark Matter identifies an Apple audience that also watches HBO. Both are relationships to investigate; paid conversion and retention need an operator test.
How is “as likely” measured?
Observed co-viewing divided by expected co-viewing after grouping households by prior activity. The viewing window is August 31–September 27; August 3–30 is the control. Paramount/HBO includes 32,003 U.S. panel homes; Apple/HBO includes 40,982. Each relationship is benchmarked within its service-pair population. Lift measures shared viewing interests, not similar plots or proven churn reduction.
THE Q3 2026 RESEARCH DESK
Four services.
Four different stories.
Read the findings, inspect the assumptions, and open the complete reports. Each company has its own question to test.
NetflixQ3 2026A broader bench has not replaced last year’s biggest hits.
Three prior hits explain the decline. The rest of Netflix’s original-series lineup grew.
OCT 9 · 6-PAGE REPORTRead the findings ↗
HBO MaxQ3 2026Two flagships gained ground. The rest of the slate did not.
House of the Dragon and Lanterns drove growth. The lineup beyond the two leaders lost share.
OCT 9 · 6-PAGE REPORTRead the findings ↗
Paramount+Q3 2026New hits replaced old hits. The portfolio barely grew.
Lioness, Dutton Ranch and Landman offset declines elsewhere. Growth in the bench outpaced the whole slate.
OCT 9 · 6-PAGE REPORTRead the findings ↗
Apple TVQ3 2026A stronger TV lineup. A separate question for Apple’s stock.
Original-series demand share grew, but the lineup still depends on Ted Lasso and Silo.
OCT 9 · 6-PAGE REPORTRead the findings ↗
RESEARCH EDITION Q3 reports dated October 9, 2026. Findings and scenarios are fixed to that date. Read each report for its assumptions, sources and disclosures.
Open the full research library, including the July archive ↗Investor research in practice
NFLXCLIENT TRADING EXAMPLEViewing evidence.
A trading decision.
A media-sector hedge fund used PeerLogix’s daily title trends to trade NFLX and generated strong P&L.
The fund used changes in engagement to inform its investment view before company reporting. This is a PeerLogix-reported historical client example, separate from the 2026 research illustrated above; no numerical return is published.
Explore the research library ↗Bring the evidence into your process
Your question.
Your research workflow.
Start with the company, the reporting period, and the assumption you want to test. Work with our team, license the data, or explore it in conversation with your AI assistant.
Ask the data.
Keep asking.
Connect PeerLogix MCP to Claude, ChatGPT, or your favorite MCP-compatible AI assistant. Ask questions about PeerLogix data in plain English, examine the evidence, and follow up in the same conversation.
EXAMPLE QUESTIONS IN YOUR AI ASSISTANT
Request MCP access ↗“Which services gained title-demand share, and which shows drove the change?”
“Compare the release calendars and the assumptions behind that view.”
Go from a question
to a research view.
Bring daily viewing evidence into your models, or work with PeerLogix on a focused company, title, or earnings question.
- Data for your own analysisTitle and platform history, with coverage and delivery agreed for your workflow.
- A dated research briefEvidence, operating assumptions, and the events that could change the conclusion.
- A review after resultsCompare the expectation with the outcome and refine the next question.
Read the evidence in context.
Are these figures live?
No. The Q3 examples are fixed findings and scenarios from research reports dated October 9, 2026. Daily public data elsewhere on the site retains its own source dates and refresh schedule.
Does demand share measure paid subscribers?
No. It measures the share of observed title demand within the stated comparison group. Viewing households are not paying accounts. Revenue, pricing and subscriber assumptions require separate evidence.
Can an audience relationship prove retention?
No. Co-viewing can identify a useful discovery or competitive relationship. Proving paid conversion or reduced churn requires compatible operator records and an experiment.
Can I work with the data in Claude or ChatGPT?
Request PLX Streaming MCP access to connect PeerLogix data and analytical tools to your preferred compatible AI assistant. We confirm the supported history, data coverage and tools for your research workflow.
YOUR NEXT RESEARCH QUESTION
Bring the thesis.
Examine the evidence.
A company, a quarter, an assumption to test. Work with PeerLogix on the viewing evidence behind your investment view.
Discuss your research ↗